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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

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Murray, Christopher J. L.;Barber, Ryan M.;Foreman, Kyle J.;Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu;Abd-Allah, Foad;Abera, Semaw F.;Aboyans, Victor;Abraham, Jerry P.;Abubakar, Ibrahim;Abu-Raddad, Laith J.;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.;Achoki, Tom;Ackerman, Ilana N.;Ademi, Zanfina;Adou, Arsene K.;Adsuar, Jose C.;Afshin, Ashkan;Agardh, Emilie E.;Alam, Sayed Saidul;Alasfoor, Deena;Albittar, Mohammed I.;Alegretti, Miguel A.;Alemu, Zewdie A.;Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael;Alhabib, Samia;Ali, Raghib;Alla, Francois;Allebeck, Peter;Almazroa, Mohammad A.;Alsharif, Ubai;Alvarez, Elena;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson;Amare, Azmeraw T.;Ameh, Emmanuel A.;Amini, Heresh;Ammar, Walid;Anderson, H. Ross;Anderson, Benjamin O.;Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.;Anwari, Palwasha;Arnlov, Johan;Arsenijevic, Valentina S. Arsic;Artaman, Al;Asghar, Rana J.;Assadi, Reza;Atkins, Lydia S.;Avila, Marco A.;Awuah, Baffour;Bachman, Victoria F.;Badawi, Alaa;Bahit, Maria C.;Balakrishnan, Kalpana;Banerjee, Amitava;Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.;Barquera, Simon;Barregard, Lars;Barrero, Lope H.;Basu, Arindam;Basu, Sanjay;Basulaiman, Mohammed O.;Beardsley, Justin;Bedi, Neeraj;Beghi, Ettore;Bekele, Tolesa;Bell, Michelle L.;Benjet, Corina;Bennett, Derrick A.;Bensenor, Isabela M.;Benzian, Habib;Bernabe, Eduardo;Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia;Beyene, Tariku J.;Bhala, Neeraj;Bhalla, Ashish;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.;Bienhoff, Kelly;Bikbov, Boris;Biryukov, Stan;Blore, Jed D.;Blosser, Christopher D.;Blyth, Fiona M.;Bohensky, Megan A.;Bolliger, Ian W.;Basara, Berrak Bora;Bornstein, Natan M.;Bose, Dipan;Boufous, Soufiane;Bourne, Rupert R. A.;Boyers, Lindsay N.;Brainin, Michael;Brayne, Carol E.;Brazinova, Alexandra;Breitborde, Nicholas J. K.;Brenner, Hermann;Briggs, Adam D.;Brooks, Peter M.;Brown, Jonathan C.;Brugha, Traolach S.;Buchbinder, Rachelle;Buckle, Geoffrey C.;Budke, Christine M.;Bulchis, Anne;Bulloch, Andrew G.;Campos-Nonato, Ismael R.;Carabin, Helene;Carapetis, Jonathan R.;Cardenas, Rosario;Carpenter, David O.;Caso, Valeria;Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.;Castro, Ruben E.;Catala-Lopez, Ferran;Cavalleri, Fiorella;Cavlin, Alanur;Chadha, Vineet K.;Chang, Jung-Chen;Charlson, Fiona J.;Chen, Honglei;Chen, Wanqing;Chiang, Peggy P.;Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel;Chowdhury, Rajiv;Christensen, Hanne;Christophi, Costas A.;Cirillo, Massimo;Coates, Matthew M.;Coffeng, Luc E.;Coggeshall, Megan S.;Colistro, Valentina;Colquhoun, Samantha M.;Cooke, Graham S.;Cooper, Cyrus;Cooper, Leslie T.;Coppola, Luis M.;Cortinovis, Monica;Criqui, Michael H.;Crump, John A.;Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia;Danawi, Hadi;Dandona, Lalit;Dandona, Rakhi;Dansereau, Emily;Dargan, Paul I.;Davey, Gail;Davis, Adrian;Davitoiu, Dragos V.;Dayama, Anand;De Leo, Diego;Degenhardt, Louisa;Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja;Dellavalle, Robert P.;Deribe, Kebede;Derrett, Sarah;Des Jarlais, Don C.;Dessalegn, Muluken;Dharmaratne, Samath D.;Dherani, Mukesh K.;Diaz-Torne, Cesar;Dicker, Daniel;Ding, Eric L.;Dokova, Klara;Dorsey, E. Ray;Driscoll, Tim R.;Duan, Leilei;Duber, Herbert C.;Ebel, Beth E.;Edmond, Karen M.;Elshrek, Yousef M.;Endres, Matthias;Ermakov, Sergey P.;Erskine, Holly E.;Eshrati, Babak;Esteghamati, Alireza;Estep, Kara;Faraon, Emerito Jose A.;Farzadfar, Farshad;Fay, Derek F.;Feigin, Valery L.;Felson, David T.;Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad;Fernandes, Jefferson G.;Ferrari, Alize J.;Fitzmaurice, Christina;Flaxman, Abraham D.;Fleming, Thomas D.;Foigt, Nataliya;Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.;Fowkes, F. Gerry R.;Paleo, Urbano Fra;Franklin, Richard C.;Fuerst, Thomas;Gabbe, Belinda;Gaffikin, Lynne;Gankpe, Fortune G.;Geleijnse, Johanna M.;Gessner, Bradford D.;Gething, Peter;Gibney, Katherine B.;Giroud, Maurice;Giussani, Giorgia;Gomez Dantes, Hector;Gona, Philimon;Gonzalez-Medina, Diego;Gosselin, Richard A.;Gotay, Carolyn C.;Goto, Atsushi;Gouda, Hebe N.;Graetz, Nicholas;Gugnani, Harish C.;Gupta, Rahul;Gupta, Rajeev;Gutierrez, Reyna A.;Haagsma, Juanita;Hafezi-Nejad, Nima;Hagan, Holly;Halasa, Yara A.;Hamadeh, Randah R.;Hamavid, Hannah;Hammami, Mouhanad;Hancock, Jamie;Hankey, Graeme J.;Hansen, Gillian M.;Hao, Yuantao;Harb, Hilda L.;Maria Haro, Josep;Havmoeller, Rasmus;Hay, Simon I.;Hay, Roderick J.;Heredia-Pi, Ileana B.;Heuton, Kyle R.;Heydarpour, Pouria;Higashi, Hideki;Hijar, Martha;Hoek, Hans W.;Hoffman, Howard J.;Hosgood, H. Dean;Hossain, Mazeda;Hotez, Peter J.;Hoy, Damian G.;Hsairi, Mohamed;Hu, Guoqing;Huang, Cheng;Huang, John J.;Husseini, Abdullatif;Huynh, Chantal;Iannarone, Marissa L.;Iburg, Kim M.;Innos, Kaire;Inoue, Manami;Islami, Farhad;Jacobsen, Kathryn H.;Jarvis, Deborah L.;Jassal, Simerjot K.;Jee, Sun Ha;Jeemon, Panniyammakal;Jensen, Paul N.;Jha, Vivekanand;Jiang, Guohong;Jiang, Ying;Jonas, Jost B.;Juel, Knud;Kan, Haidong;Karch, Andre;Karema, Corine K.;Karimkhani, Chante;Karthikeyan, Ganesan;Kassebaum, Nicholas J.;Kaul, Anil;Kawakami, Norito;Kazanjan, Konstantin;Kemp, Andrew H.;Kengne, Andre P.;Keren, Andre;Khader, Yousef S.;Khalifa, Shams Eldin A.;Khan, Ejaz A.;Khan, Gulfaraz;Khang, Young-Ho;Kieling, Christian;Kim, Daniel;Kim, Sungroul;Kim, Yunjin;Kinfu, Yohannes;Kinge, Jonas M.;Kivipelto, Miia;Knibbs, Luke D.;Knudsen, Ann Kristin;Kokubo, Yoshihiro;Kosen, Soewarta;Krishnaswami, Sanjay;Defo, Barthelemy Kuate;Bicer, Burcu Kucuk;Kuipers, Ernst J.;Kulkarni, Chanda;Kulkarni, Veena S.;Kumar, G. Anil;Kyu, Hmwe H.;Lai, Taavi;Lalloo, Ratilal;Lallukka, Tea;Lam, Hilton;Lan, Qing;Lansingh, Van C.;Larsson, Anders;Lawrynowicz, Alicia E. B.;Leasher, Janet L.;Leigh, James;Leung, Ricky;Levitz, Carly E.;Li, Bin;Li, Yichong;Li, Yongmei;Lim, Stephen S.;Lind, Maggie;Lipshultz, Steven E.;Liu, Shiwei;Liu, Yang;Lloyd, Belinda K.;Lofgren, Katherine T.;Logroscino, Giancarlo;Looker, Katharine J.;Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie;Lotufo, Paulo A.;Lozano, Rafael;Lucas, Robyn M.;Lunevicius, Raimundas;Lyons, Ronan A.;Ma, Stefan;Macintyre, Michael F.;Mackay, Mark T.;Majdan, Marek;Malekzadeh, Reza;Marcenes, Wagner;Margolis, David J.;Margono, Christopher;Marzan, Melvin B.;Masci, Joseph R.;Mashal, Mohammad T.;Matzopoulos, Richard;Mayosi, Bongani M.;Mazorodze, Tasara T.;Mcgill, Neil W.;Mcgrath, John J.;Mckee, Martin;McLain, Abigail;Meaney, Peter A.;Medina, Catalina;Mehndiratta, Man Mohan;Mekonnen, Wubegzier;Melaku, Yohannes A.;Meltzer, Michele;Memish, Ziad A.;Mensah, George A.;Meretoja, Atte;Mhimbira, Francis A.;Micha, Renata;Miller, Ted R.;Mills, Edward J.;Mitchell, Philip B.;Mock, Charles N.;Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed;Mohammad, Karzan A.;Mokdad, Ali H.;Mola, Glen L. D.;Monasta, Lorenzo;Montanez Hernandez, Julio C.;Montico, Marcella;Montine, Thomas J.;Mooney, Meghan D.;Moore, Ami R.;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar;Moran, Andrew E.;Mori, Rintaro;Moschandreas, Joanna;Moturi, Wilkister N.;Moyer, Madeline L.;Mozaffarian, Dariush;Msemburi, William T.;Mueller, Ulrich O.;Mukaigawara, Mitsuru;Mullany, Erin C.;Murdoch, Michele E.;Murray, Joseph;Murthy, Kinnari S.;Naghavi, Mohsen;Naheed, Aliya;Naidoo, Kovin S.;Naldi, Luigi;Nand, Devina;Nangia, Vinay;Narayan, K. M. Venkat;Nejjari, Chakib;Neupane, Sudan P.;Newton, Charles R.;Ng, Marie;Ngalesoni, Frida N.;Nguyen, Grant;Nisar, Muhammad I.;Nolte, Sandra;Norheim, Ole F.;Norman, Rosana E.;Norrving, Bo;Nyakarahuka, Luke;Oh, In-Hwan;Ohkubo, Takayoshi;Ohno, Summer L.;Olusanya, Bolajoko O.;Opio, John Nelson;Ortblad, Katrina;Ortiz, Alberto;Pain, Amanda W.;Pandian, Jeyaraj D.;Panelo, Carlo Irwin A.;Papachristou, Christina;Park, Eun-Kee;Park, Jae-Hyun;Patten, Scott B.;Patton, George C.;Paul, Vinod K.;Pavlin, Boris I.;Pearce, Neil;Pereira, David M.;Perez-Padilla, Rogelio;Perez-Ruiz, Fernando;Perico, Norberto;Pervaiz, Aslam;Pesudovs, Konrad;Peterson, Carrie B.;Petzold, Max;Phillips, Michael R.;Phillips, Bryan K.;Phillips, David E.;Piel, Frederic B.;Plass, Dietrich;Poenaru, Dan;Polinder, Suzanne;Pope, Daniel;Popova, Svetlana;Poulton, Richie G.;Pourmalek, Farshad;Prabhakaran, Dorairaj;Prasad, Noela M.;Pullan, Rachel L.;Qato, Dima M.;Quistberg, D. Alex;Rafay, Anwar;Rahimi, Kazem;Rahman, Sajjad U.;Raju, Murugesan;Rana, Saleem M.;Razavi, Homie;Reddy, K. Srinath;Refaat, Amany;Remuzzi, Giuseppe;Resnikoff, Serge;Ribeiro, Antonio L.;Richardson, Lee;Richardus, Jan Hendrik;Roberts, D. Allen;Rojas-Rueda, David;Ronfani, Luca;Roth, Gregory A.;Rothenbacher, Dietrich;Rothstein, David H.;Rowley, Jane T.;Roy, Nobhojit;Ruhago, George M.;Saeedi, Mohammad Y.;Saha, Sukanta;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali;Sampson, Uchechukwu K. A.;Sanabria, Juan R.;Sandar, Logan;Santos, Itamar S.;Satpathy, Maheswar;Sawhney, Monika;Scarborough, Peter;Schneider, Ione J.;Schoettker, Ben;Schumacher, Austin E.;Schwebel, David C.;Scott, James G.;Seedat, Soraya;Sepanlou, Sadaf G.;Serina, Peter T.;Servan-Mori, Edson E.;Shackelford, Katya A.;Shaheen, Amira;Shahraz, Saeid;Levy, Teresa Shamah;Shangguan, Siyi;She, Jun;Sheikhbahaei, Sara;Shi, Peilin;Shibuya, Kenji;Shinohara, Yukito;Shiri, Rahman;Shishani, Kawkab;Shiue, Ivy;Shrime, Mark G.;Sigfusdottir, Inga D.;Silberberg, Donald H.;Simard, Edgar P.;Sindi, Shireen;Singh, Abhishek;Singh, Jasvinder A.;Singh, Lavanya;Skirbekk, Vegard;Slepak, Erica Leigh;Sliwa, Karen;Soneji, Samir;Soreide, Kjetil;Soshnikov, Sergey;Sposato, Luciano A.;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.;Stanaway, Jeffrey D.;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki;Stein, Dan J.;Stein, Murray B.;Steiner, Caitlyn;Steiner, Timothy J.;Stevens, Antony;Stewart, Andrea;Stovner, Lars J.;Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos;Sunguya, Bruno F.;Swaminathan, Soumya;Swaroop, Mamta;Sykes, Bryan L.;Tabb, Karen M.;Takahashi, Ken;Tandon, Nikhil;Tanne, David;Tanner, Marcel;Tavakkoli, Mohammad;Taylor, Hugh R.;Te Ao, Braden J.;Tediosi, Fabrizio;Temesgen, Awoke M.;Templin, Tara;Ten Have, Margreet;Tenkorang, Eric Y.;Terkawi, Abdullah S.;Thomson, Blake;Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.;Thrift, Amanda G.;Thurston, George D.;Tillmann, Taavi;Tonelli, Marcello;Topouzis, Fotis;Toyoshima, Hideaki;Traebert, Jefferson;Tran, Bach X.;Trillini, Matias;Truelsen, Thomas;Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis;Tuzcu, Emin M.;Uchendu, Uche S.;Ukwaja, Kingsley N.;Undurraga, Eduardo A.;Uzun, Selen B.;Van Brakel, Wim H.;Van De Vijver, Steven;van Gool, Coen H.;Van Os, Jim;Vasankari, Tommi J.;Venketasubramanian, N.;Violante, Francesco S.;Vlassov, Vasiliy V.;Vollset, Stein Emil;Wagner, Gregory R.;Wagner, Joseph;Waller, Stephen G.;Wan, Xia;Wang, Haidong;Wang, Jianli;Wang, Linhong;Warouw, Tati S.;Weichenthal, Scott;Weiderpass, Elisabete;Weintraub, Robert G.;Wang Wenzhi;Werdecker, Andrea;Westerman, Ronny;Whiteford, Harvey A.;Wilkinson, James D.;Williams, Thomas N.;Wolfe, Charles D.;Wolock, Timothy M.;Woolf, Anthony D.;Wulf, Sarah;Wurtz, Brittany;Xu, Gelin;Yan, Lijing L.;Yano, Yuichiro;Ye, Pengpeng;Yentur, Goekalp K.;Yip, Paul;Yonemoto, Naohiro;Yoon, Seok-Jun;Younis, Mustafa Z.;Yu, Chuanhua;Zaki, Maysaa E.;Zhao, Yong;Zheng, Yingfeng;Zonies, David;Zou, Xiaonong;Salomon, Joshua A.;Lopez, Alan D.;Vos, Theo
通讯作者:
Murray, CJL
作者机构:
[Jassal, Simerjot K.; Criqui, Michael H.; Stein, Murray B.] Univ Calif San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA.
[Terkawi, Abdullah S.] Univ Virginia, Dept Anesthesiol, Charlottesville, VA USA.
[Terkawi, Abdullah S.] Outcomes Res Consortium, Cleveland, OH USA.
[Terkawi, Abdullah S.] King Fahad Med City, Dept Anesthesiol, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
[Foigt, Nataliya] Acad Med Sci, Inst Gerontol, Kiev, Ukraine.
通讯机构:
[Murray, Christopher J. L.] Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, 2301 5th Ave,Suite 600, Seattle, WA 98121 USA.
语种:
英文
期刊:
LANCET
ISSN:
0140-6736
年:
2015
卷:
386
期:
10009
页码:
2145-2191
文献类别:
WOS:Article
所属学科:
ESI学科类别:临床医学;WOS学科类别:Medicine, General & Internal
入藏号:
基金类别:
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Graduate School of Medical Sciences, University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG); National Health and Medical Research Council; National Natural Sciences Foundation of China; German National Cohort Consortium; Brien Holden Vision Institute; National Health and Medical Research Council Public Health (Australian) Early Career Fellowship; Wellcome Trust Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine [099876]; National Natural Science Foundation for Young Scholars of China [81200051]; Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China [20110071120060]; Science Foundation for Young Scholars in Zhongshan Hospital [2012ZSQN04]; Scientific Project for Fudan University [20520133474]; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Senior Principal Research Fellow; Swiss National Science Foundation [PBBSP3-146869, P300P3-154634]; Korean Health Technology R&D Project (Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea) [HI13C0729]; CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems
机构署名:
本校为其他机构
摘要:
Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6.2 years (95% UI 5.6-6.6), from 65.3 years (65.0-65.6) in 1990 to 71.5 years (71.0-71.9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5.4 years (4.9-5.8), from 56.9 years (54.5-59.1) to 62.3 years (59.7-64.8), total DALYs fell by 3.6% (0.3-7.4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26.7% (24.6-29.1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition-in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden-is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.
参考文献:
Agyei-Mensah S, 2010, J URBAN HEALTH, V87, P879, DOI 10.1007/s11524-010-9492-y
Alliance NCD, 2013, HLTH PLAN HLTH PEOPL
Andreev EM, 2003, INT J EPIDEMIOL, V32, P437, DOI 10.1093/ije/dyg085
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