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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

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期刊论文
作者:
Naghavi, Mohsen;Wang, Haidong;Lozano, Rafael;Davis, Adrian;Liang, Xiaofeng;Zhou, Maigeng;Vollset, Stein Emil;Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu;Abdalla, Safa;Abd-Allah, Foad;Aziz, Muna I. Abdel;Abera, Semaw Ferede;Aboyans, Victor;Abraham, Biju;Abraham, Jerry P.;Abuabara, Katrina E.;Abubakar, Ibrahim;Abu-Raddad, Laith J.;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.;Achoki, Tom;Adelekan, Ademola;Ademi, Zanfi Na;Adofo, Koranteng;Adou, Arsene Kouablan;Adsuar, Jose C.;Aernlov, Johan;Agardh, Emilie Elisabet;Akena, Dickens;Al Khabouri, Mazin J.;Alasfoor, Deena;Albittar, Mohammed;Alegretti, Miguel Angel;Aleman, Alicia V.;Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw;Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael;Alhabib, Samia;Ali, Mohammed K.;Ali, Raghib;Alla, Francois;Al Lami, Faris;Allebeck, Peter;AlMazroa, Mohammad A.;Salman, Rustam Al-Shahi;Alsharif, Ubai;Alvarez, Elena;Alviz-Guzman, Nelson;Amankwaa, Adansi A.;Amare, Azmeraw T.;Ameli, Omid;Amini, Hassan;Ammar, Walid;Anderson, H. Ross;Anderson, Benjamin O.;Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.;Anwari, Palwasha;Apfel, Henry;Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu;Arsenijevic, Valentina S. Arsic;Al Artaman;Asad, Majed Masoud;Asghar, Rana J.;Assadi, Reza;Atkins, Lydia S.;Atkinson, Charles;Badawi, Alaa;Bahit, Maria C.;Bakfalouni, Talal;Balakrishnan, Kalpana;Balalla, Shivanthi;Banerjee, Amitava;Barber, Ryan M.;Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.;Barquera, Simon;Barregard, Lars;Barrero, Lope H.;Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh;Basu, Arindam;Basu, Sanjay;Basulaiman, Mohammed Omar;Beardsley, Justin;Bedi, Neeraj;Beghi, Ettore;Bekele, Tolesa;Bell, Michelle L.;Benjet, Corina;Bennett, Derrick A.;Bensenor, Isabela M.;Benzian, Habib;Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia;Beyene, Tariku Jibat;Bhala, Neeraj;Bhalla, Ashish;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.;Bikbov, Boris;Bin Abdulhak, Aref;Biryukov, Stan;Blore, Jed D.;Blyth, Fiona M.;Bohensky, Megan A.;Borges, Guilherme;Bose, Dipan;Boufous, Soufiane;Bourne, Rupert R.;Boyers, Lindsay N.;Brainin, Michael;Brauer, Michael;Brayne, Carol E. G.;Brazinova, Alexandra;Breitborde, Nicholas;Brenner, Hermann;Briggs, Adam D. M.;Brown, Jonathan C.;Brugha, Traolach S.;Buckle, Geoffrey C.;Bui, Linh Ngoc;Bukhman, Gene;Burch, Michael;Nonato, Ismael Ricardo Campos;Carabin, Helesne;Cardenas, Rosario;Carapetis, Jonathan;Carpenter, David O.;Caso, Valeria;Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.;Castro, Ruben Estanislao;Catala-Lopez, Ferrn;Cavalleri, Fiorella;Chang, Jung-Chen;Charlson, Fiona C.;Che, Xuan;Chen, Honglei;Chen, Yingyao;Chen, Jian Sheng;Chen, Zhengming;Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia;Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel;Chowdhury, Rajiv;Christensen, Hanne;Christophi, Costas A.;Chuang, Ting-Wu;Chugh, Sumeet S.;Cirillo, Massimo;Coates, Matthew M.;Coffeng, Luc Edgar;Coggeshall, Megan S.;Cohen, Aaron;Colistro, Valentina;Colquhoun, Samantha M.;Colomar, Mercedes;Cooper, Leslie Trumbull;Cooper, Cyrus;Coppola, Luis M.;Cortinovis, Monica;Courville, Karen;Cowie, Benjamin C.;Criqui, Michael H.;Crump, John A.;Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia;Leite, Iuri da Costa;Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C.;Dandona, Lalit;Dandona, Rakhi;Dansereau, Emily;Dargan, Paul I.;Dayama, Anand;De la Cruz-Gongora, Vanessa;de la Vega, Shelley F.;De Leo, Diego;Degenhardt, Louisa;del Pozo-Cruz, Borja;Dellavalle, Robert P.;Deribe, Kebede;Jarlais, Don C. Des;Dessalegn, Muluken;deVeber, Gabrielle A.;Dharmaratne, Samath D.;Dherani, Mukesh;Diaz-Ortega, Jose-Luis;Diaz-Torne, Cesar;Dicker, Daniel;Ding, Eric L.;Dokova, Klara;Dorsey, E. Ray;Driscoll, Tim R.;Duan, Leilei;Duber, Herbert C.;Durrani, Adnan M.;Ebel, Beth E.;Edmond, Karen M.;Ellenbogen, Richard G.;Elshrek, Yousef;Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich;Erskine, Holly E.;Eshrati, Babak;Esteghamati, Alireza;Estep, Kara;Fuerst, Thomas;Fahimi, Saman;Fahrion, Anna S.;Faraon, Emerito Jose A.;Farzadfar, Farshad;Fay, Derek F. J.;Feigl, Andrea B.;Feigin, Valery L.;Felicio, Manuela Mendonca;Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad;Fernandes, Jefferson G.;Ferrari, Alize J.;Fleming, Thomas D.;Foigt, Nataliya;Foreman, Kyle;Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.;Fowkes, F. Gerry R.;Fra Paleo, Urbano;Franklin, Richard C.;Futran, Neal D.;Gaffikin, Lynne;Gambashidze, Ketevan;Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho;Garcia-Guerra, Francisco Armando;Garcia, Ana Cristina;Geleijnse, Johanna M.;Gessner, Bradford D.;Gibney, Katherine B.;Gillum, Richard F.;Gilmour, Stuart;Abdelmageem, Ibrahim;Ginawi, Mohamed;Giroud, Maurice;Glaser, Elizabeth L.;Goenka, Shifalika;Dantes, Hector Gomez;Gona, Philimon;Gonzalez-Medina, Diego;Guinovart, Caterina;Gupta, Rahul;Gupta, Rajeev;Gosselin, Richard A.;Gotay, Carolyn C.;Goto, Atsushi;Gowda, Hube N.;Graetz, Nicholas;Greenwell, K. Fern;Gugnani, Harish Chander;Gunnell, David;Gutierrez, Reyna A.;Haagsma, Juanita;Hafezi-Nejad, Nima;Hagan, Holly;Hagstromer, Maria;Halasa, Yara A.;Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi;Hamavid, Hannah;Hammami, Mouhanad;Hancock, Jamie;Hankey, Graeme J.;Hansen, Gillian M.;Harb, Hilda L.;Harewood, Heather;Haro, Josep Maria;Havmoeller, Rasmus;Hay, Roderick J.;Hay, Simon I.;Hedayati, Mohammad T.;Pi, Ileana B. Heredia;Heuton, Kyle R.;Heydarpour, Pouria;Higashi, Hideki;Hijar, Martha;Hoek, Hans W.;Hoffman, Howard J.;Hornberger, John C.;Hosgood, H. Dean;Hossain, Mazeda;Hotez, Peter J.;Hoy, Damian G.;Hsairi, Mohamed;Hu, Guoqing;Huang, John J.;Huffman, Mark D.;Hughes, Andrew J.;Husseini, Abdullatif;Huynh, Chantal;Iannarone, Marissa;Iburg, Kim M.;Idrisov, Bulat T.;Ikeda, Nayu;Innos, Kaire;Inoue, Manami;Islami, Farhad;Ismayilova, Samaya;Jacobsen, Kathryn H.;Jassal, Simerjot;Jayaraman, Sudha P.;Jensen, Paul N.;Jha, Vivekanand;Jiang, Guohong;Jiang, Ying;Jonas, Jost B.;Joseph, Jonathan;Juel, Knud;Kabagambe, Edmond Kato;Kan, Haidong;Karch, Andre;Karimkhani, Chante;Karthikeyan, Ganesan;Kassebaum, Nicholas;Kaul, Anil;Kawakami, Norito;Kazanjan, Konstantin;Kazi, Dhruv S.;Kemp, Andrew H.;Kengne, Andre Pascal;Keren, Andre;Kereselidze, Maia;Khader, Yousef Saleh;Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan;Khan, Ejaz Ahmed;Khan, Gulfaraz;Khang, Young-Ho;Kieling, Christian;Kinfu, Yohannes;Kinge, Jonas M.;Kim, Daniel;Kim, Sungroul;Kivipelto, Miia;Knibbs, Luke;Knudsen, Ann Kristin;Kokubo, Yoshihiro;Kosen, Sowarta;Kotagal, Meera;Kravchenko, Michael A.;Krishnaswami, Sanjay;Krueger, Hans;Defo, Barthelemy Kuate;Kuipers, Ernst J.;Bicer, Burcu Kucuk;Kulkarni, Chanda;Kulkarni, Veena S.;Kumar, Kaushalendra;Kumar, Ravi B.;Kwan, Gene F.;Kyu, Hmwe;Lai, Taavi;Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana;Lalloo, Ratilal;Lallukka, Tea;Lam, Hilton;Lan, Qing;Lansingh, Van C.;Larson, Heidi J.;Larsson, Anders;Lavados, Pablo M.;Lawrynowicz, Alicia E. B.;Leasher, Janet L.;Lee, Jong-Tae;Leigh, James;Leinsalu, Mall;Leung, Ricky;Levitz, Carly;Li, Bin;Li, Yichong;Li, Yongmei;Liddell, Chelsea;Lim, Stephen S.;de Lima, Graca Maria Ferreira;Lind, Maggie L.;Lipshultz, Steven E.;Liu, Shiwei;Liu, Yang;Lloyd, Belinda K.;Lofgren, Katherine T.;Logroscino, Giancarlo;London, Stephanie J.;Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie;Lotufo, Paulo A.;Lucas, Robyn M.;Lunevicius, Raimundas;Lyons, Ronan Anthony;Ma, Stefan;Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro;MacIntyre, Michael F.;Mackay, Mark T.;MacLachlan, Jennifer H.;Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos;Mahdi, Abbas A.;Majdan, Marek;Malekzadeh, Reza;Mangalam, Srikanth;Mapoma, Christopher Chabila;Marape, Marape;Marcenes, Wagner;Margono, Christopher;Marks, Guy B.;Marzan, Melvin Barrientos;Masci, Joseph R.;Mashal, Mohammad Taufi Q.;Masiye, Felix;Mason-Jones, Amanda J.;Matzopolous, Richard;Mayosi, Bongani M.;Mazorodze, Tasara T.;McGrath, John J.;Mckay, Abigail C.;Mckee, Martin;McLain, Abigail;Meaney, Peter A.;Mehndiratta, Man Mohan;Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola;Melaku, Yohannes Adama;Meltzer, Michele;Memish, Ziad A.;Mendoza, Walter;Mensah, George A.;Meretoja, Atte;Mhimbira, Francis A.;Miller, Ted R.;Mills, Edward J.;Misganaw, Awoke;Mishra, Santosh K.;Mock, Charles N.;Moffitt, Terrie E.;Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin;Mokdad, Ali H.;Mola, Glen Liddell;Monasta, Lorenzo;Monis, Jonathan de la Cruz;Hernandez, Julio C. Montaez;Montico, Marcella;Montine, Thomas J.;Mooney, Meghan D.;Moore, Ami R.;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar;Moran, Andrew E.;Mori, Rintaro;Moschandreas, Joanna;Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora;Moyer, Madeline L.;Mozaffarian, Dariush;Mueller, Ulrich O.;Mukaigawara, Mitsuru;Mullany, Erin C.;Murray, Joseph;Mustapha, Adetoun;Naghavi, Paria;Naheed, Aliya;Naidoo, Kovin S.;Naldi, Luigi;Nand, Devina;Nangia, Vinay;Narayan, K. M. Venkat;Nash, Denis;Nasher, Jamal;Nejjari, Chakib;Nelson, Robert G.;Neuhouser, Marian;Neupane, Sudan Prasad;Newcomb, Polly A.;Newman, Lori;Newton, Charles R.;Ng, Marie;Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak;Nguyen, Grant;Nhung Thi Trang Nguyen;Nisar, Muhammad Imran;Nolte, Sandra;Norheim, Ole F.;Norman, Rosana E.;Norrving, Bo;Nyakarahuka, Luke;Odell, Shaun;O'Donnell, Martin;Ohkubo, Takayoshi;Ohno, Summer Lockett;Olusanya, Bolajoko O.;Omer, Saad B.;Opio, John Nelson;Orisakwe, Orish Ebere;Ortblad, Katrina F.;Ortiz, Alberto;Otayza, Maria Lourdes K.;Pain, Amanda W.;Pandian, Jeyaraj D.;Panelo, Carlo Irwin;Panniyammakal, Jeemon;Papachristou, Christina;Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.;Patten, Scott B.;Patton, George C.;Paul, Vinod K.;Pavlin, Boris;Pearce, Neil;Pellegrini, Carlos A.;Pereira, David M.;Peresson, Sophie C.;Perez-Padilla, Rogelio;Perez-Ruiz, Fernando P.;Perico, Norberto;Pervaiz, Aslam;Pesudovs, Konrad;Peterson, Carrie B.;Petzold, Max;Phillips, Bryan K.;Phillips, David E.;Phillips, Michael R.;Plass, Dietrich;Piel, Frederic Bernard;Poenaru, Dan;Polinder, Suzanne;Popova, Svetlana;Poulton, Richie G.;Pourmalek, Farshad;Prabhakaran, Dorairaj;Qato, Dima;Quezada, Amado D.;Quistberg, D. Alex;Rabito, Felicia;Rafay, Anwar;Rahimi, Kazem;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa;Rahman, Sajjad U. R.;Raju, Murugesan;Rakovac, Ivo;Rana, Saleem M.;Refaat, Amany;Remuzzi, Giuseppe;Ribeiro, Antonio L.;Ricci, Stefano;Riccio, Patricia M.;Richardson, Lee;Richardus, Jan Hendrik;Roberts, Bayard;Roberts, D. Allen;Robinson, Margaret;Roca, Anna;Rodriguez, Alina;Rojas-Rueda, David;Ronfani, Luca;Room, Robin;Roth, Gregory A.;Rothenbacher, Dietrich;Rothstein, David H.;Rowley, Jane Tf;Roy, Nobhojit;Ruhago, George M.;Rushton, Lesley;Sambandam, Sankar;Soreide, Kjetil;Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya;Saha, Sukanta;Sahathevan, Ramesh;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali;Sahle, Berhe Weldearegawi;Salomon, Joshua A.;Salvo, Deborah;Samonte, Genesis May J.;Sampson, Uchechukwu;Sanabria, Juan Ramon;Sandar, Logan;Santos, Itamar S.;Satpathy, Maheswar;Sawhney, Monika;Saylan, Mete;Scarborough, Peter;Schoettker, Ben;Schmidt, Juergen C.;Schneider, Ione J. C.;Schumacher, Austin E.;Schwebel, David C.;Scott, James G.;Sepanlou, Sadaf G.;Servan-Mori, Edson E.;Shackelford, Katya;Shaheen, Amira;Shahraz, Saeid;Shakh-Nazarova, Marina;Shangguan, Siyi;She, Jun;Sheikhbahaei, Sara;Shepard, Donald S.;Shibuya, Kenji;Shinohara, Yukito;Shishani, Kawkab;Shiue, Ivy;Shivakoti, Rupak;Shrime, Mark G.;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora;Silberberg, Donald H.;Silva, Andrea P.;Simard, Edgar P.;Sindi, Shireen;Singh, Jasvinder A.;Singh, Lavanya;Sioson, Edgar;Skirbekk, Vegard;Sliwa, Karen;So, Samuel;Soljak, Michael;Soneji, Samir;Soshnikov, Sergey S.;Sposato, Luciano A.;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.;Stanaway, Jeff Rey D.;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi;Steenland, Kyle;Stein, Claudia;Steiner, Caitlyn;Stevens, Antony;Stoeckl, Heidi;Straif, Kurt;Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos;Sturua, Lela;Sunguya, Bruno F.;Swaminathan, Soumya;Swaroop, Mamta;Sykes, Bryan L.;Tabb, Karen M.;Takahashi, Ken;Talongwa, Roberto Tchio;Tan, Feng;Tanne, David;Tanner, Marcel;Tavakkoli, Mohammad;Ao, Braden Te;Teixeira, Carolina Maria;Templin, Tara;Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman;Thomas, Bernadette A.;Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.;Thrift, Amanda G.;Thurston, George D.;Tillmann, Taavi;Tirschwell, David L.;Tleyjeh, Imad M.;Tonelli, Marcello;Topouzis, Fotis;Towbin, Jeffrey A.;Toyoshima, Hideaki;Traebert, Jefferson;Tran, Bach X.;Truelsen, Thomas;Trujillo, Ulises;Trillini, Matias;Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala;Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis;Tuzcu, E. Murat;Ubeda, Clotilde;Uchendu, Uche S.;Ukwaja, Kingsley N.;Undurraga, Eduardo A.;Vallely, Andrew J.;van de Vijver, Steven;van Gool, Coen H.;Varakin, Yuri Y.;Vasankari, Tommi J.;Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales;Vavilala, Monica S.;Venketasubramanian, N.;Vijayakumar, Lakshmi;Villalpando, Salvador;Violante, Francesco S.;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich;Wagner, Gregory R.;Waller, Stephen G.;Wang, JianLi;Wang, Linhong;Wang, XiaoRong;Wang, Yanping;Warouw, Tati Suryati;Weichenthal, Scott;Weiderpass, Elisabete;Weintraub, Robert G.;Wenzhi, Wang;Werdecker, Andrea;Wessells, K. Ryan R.;Westerman, Ronny;Whiteford, Harvey A.;Wilkinson, James D.;Williams, Thomas Neil;Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret;Wolfe, Charles D. A.;Wolock, Timothy M.;Woolf, Anthony D.;Wong, John Q.;Wright, Jonathan L.;Wulf, Sarah;Wurtz, Brittany;Xu, Gelin;Yang, Yang C.;Yano, Yuichiro;Yatsuya, Hiroshi;Yip, Paul;Yonemoto, Naohiro;Yoon, Seok-Jun;Younis, Mustafa;Yu, Chuanhua;Jin, Kim Yun;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed;Zamakhshary, Mohammed Fouad;Zeeb, Hajo;Zhang, Yong;Zhao, Yong;Zheng, Yingfeng;Zhu, Jun;Zhu, Shankuan;Zonies, David;Zou, Xiao Nong;Zunt, Joseph R.;Vos, Theo;Lopez, Alan D.;Murray, Christopher J. L.
通讯作者:
Murray, CJL
作者机构:
[Nolte, Sandra; Papachristou, Christina; Alsharif, Ubai] Charite, D-13353 Berlin, Germany.
[Yonemoto, Naohiro] Natl Ctr Neurol & Psychiat, Tokyo, Japan.
[Kravchenko, Michael A.; Varakin, Yuri Y.] Res Ctr Neurol, Moscow, Russia.
[Mckee, Martin; Tillmann, Taavi; Hossain, Mazeda; Roberts, Bayard; Stoeckl, Heidi; Pearce, Neil; Larson, Heidi J.] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1, England.
[Bose, Dipan] World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA.
通讯机构:
[Murray, CJL] 2301 5th Ave,Suite 600, Seattle, WA 98121 USA.
语种:
英文
期刊:
LANCET
ISSN:
0140-6736
年:
2015
卷:
385
期:
9963
页码:
117-171
文献类别:
WOS:Article
所属学科:
ESI学科类别:临床医学;WOS学科类别:Medicine, General & Internal
入藏号:
基金类别:
British Heart Foundation [RG/08/014/24067]; Department of Health [CDF-2013-06-012, RP-PG-0407-10184]; Medical Research Council [G9806489, MC_U137686851, MC_U147585819, MC_UP_A620_1014, MC_UU_12011/1, MR/K006525/1, MR/L003120/1]; NCATS NIH HHS [KL2 TR001088]; NIA NIH HHS [P30 AG017253]; NIEHS NIH HHS [P30 ES000260]; Wellcome Trust [089276, 089963, 099876]
机构署名:
本校为其他机构
院系归属:
基础医学院
冶金与环境学院
湘雅公共卫生学院
湘雅药学院
物理与电子学院
摘要:
Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
参考文献:
Ahern RM, 2011, POPUL HEALTH METR, V9, DOI 10.1186/1478-7954-9-8
Ahmad O. B., 2001, AGE STANDARDIZATION
AIWH, 2004, FIELD B RHEUM HEART
Atun R, 2013, LANCET, V381, P690, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60063-X
Balabanova D, 2013, LANCET, V381, P2118, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)62000-5

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